The UP School of Economics–Philippine Center for Economic Development (UPSE-PCED) Seminar was held on 26 August 2026 via Zoom, featuring Mr. Juan Rufino M. Reyes, PhD candidate in Economics at King’s College London and a researcher affiliated with the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).

Mr. Reyes presented his research on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), using a novel text-based AI Uncertainty Index. His study examines how increases in AI-related uncertainty affect key economic indicators, particularly equity prices, wages, and hours worked.

The findings suggest that AI uncertainty produces contractionary effects that differ from conventional uncertainty shocks. The study points to a potential automation threat mechanism, wherein the possibility of future automation may influence firms’ bargaining power and wages even before automation is adopted. The research also highlights differences in labor market responses across industries depending on their level of AI exposure.

The seminar provided valuable insights into the evolving relationship between artificial intelligence, macroeconomic conditions, and labor markets, contributing to ongoing discussions on the economic implications of technological change.