Abstract

This study uses event-level data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) to examine the impact of Rodrigo Duterte’s “war on drugs” on political violence in the Philippines.

Using a balanced panel of 80 provinces (January 2016–June 2017), the analysis applies event-study and difference-in-differences methods. It compares drug-war-related fatalities against a within-country placebo: non-drug-war political violence (e.g., battles, explosions, and violence against civilians).

Findings show:

• No discontinuity in placebo violence around key political events
• A sharp, immediate spike in drug-war-related fatalities

This suggests that the increase in violence is specific to the drug war, rather than driven by broader conflict trends, data coverage changes, or simultaneous shocks.

The study also identifies the May 9, 2016 election (rather than the June 30 inauguration) as the critical event date, while addressing key methodological challenges such as anticipation effects and data endogeneity.

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