FriSem: Industrial Policy for Development

Evidence shows that developing economies are the most intensive users of industrial policy. Upper-middle-income countries now record business subsidies averaging 4.2% of GDP—the highest level on record—while middle-income economies exhibit higher and more dispersed import tariffs than high-income countries, indicating more targeted industrial protection.
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FriSem: Market Design with Distributional Policies: Lesson for the Philippines?

Market design started with the famous work of Gale and Shapley (1962) and has reshaped various markets such as school choice, kidney exchange, and college admissions. More recently, distributional policies such as affirmative action have become a central focus of the literature. In this lecture, I give an overview of this literature starting with policies based on reserving seats for protected groups (Hafalir, Yenmez, and Yildirim, 2013). Such reservation systems have been implemented at the national level in Brazil, Chile, and India, and were used to allocate vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States.
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FriSem: Bank Performance Indicators and Climate Change in the Philippines

The paper examines how climate change–related physical risks affect bank indicators in the Philippines using provincial data from 2012 to 2024. Results show non-linear and heterogeneous effects on bank variables, supporting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ green finance initiatives and SDG 13 on climate action. It also finds that both banks and depositors adjust to climate risks. Keywords: BSP, green financing, climate change, bank performance JEL Codes: C1, G21, G5, Q5
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FriSem: Do Persistent Gender Differences Begin at Entry?

This study examines how gender inequalities at the start of one’s career can create long-term differences in compensation and job status. Using ADB panel data from 2000–2022, findings show that women in earlier years were more likely to enter at lower staff levels than men, while promotion and exit rates showed no gender differences. The study highlights how hiring level plays a critical role in shaping career progression and workplace gender gaps.
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FriSem: Global Value Chains Participation, Technological Upgrading and the Middle Income Trap

This paper develops a theoretical and empirical framework to examine how the dynamic interaction of global value chains (GVC) participation and technological capabilities shape economic upgrading and income convergence. The conceptual model highlights the dual role of GVCs: they facilitate knowledge spillovers and diffusion but may also generate lock-in effects when domestic capabilities are weak relative to a critical threshold. The model predicts the existence of a high-capability equilibrium and low-capability trap, depending on the interaction between domestic innovation effort and GVC integration. Econometric analysis of cross-country data from 1995 to 2018 points to the stock of complex technological capabilities as key driver of income upgrading. In contrast, GVC participation has weak and context-dependent effects, becoming beneficial only when complemented by strong domestic absorptive capacity. The upgrading impact of GVC participation seems strongest for the early industrialization of low-income economies. For middle income countries, greater GVC integration without strong domestic capabilities may even hinder upgrading, reinforcing the notion of a trap. The findings underscore that successful structural transformation requires not just integration into GVCs, but sustained investments in innovation, skills, and productive knowledge. JEL code: F43, F63, O30, O40, O47 Keywords: global value chains, middle income trap, technological upgrading, economic complexity
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FriSem: Measuring inflation expectation revisions without panel data

Using demographic group averages as proxies for prior beliefs, changes in household inflation expectations are shown to respond to key food and energy prices. Results from Philippine and U.S. survey data confirm that the method provides reliable, low-bias estimates. With Cymon Kayle Lubangco and Mark Holmes
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FriSem: Labor market effects of artificial intellegence: Evidence from Philippine occupations

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have elevated concerns about the impact of technological progress in the labor market, especially the displacement of workers. This study examines the labor market effects of AI in the Philippines, a developing country with significant engagement in cognitive services. To translate existing AI-related measures that were constructed using the O*NET database to the Philippine context, we implement a two-step matching process: assessing semantic similarity between occupational task sets and performing manual review to ensure contextual consistency. We then estimate the long-difference regression between 2019 and 2024 of labor market outcomes on the AI occupational exposure measure. Overall, we find that occupational exposure to AI is linked to lower real wage growth, but it does not appear to have a significant relationship with employment growth and change in unemployment risk. However, in occupations with low complementarity with AI, greater exposure to AI is associated with lower employment growth and increased unemployment risk. Labor market outcomes connected to higher exposure to AI also vary by an occupation’s exposure to the IT-BPM sector. These findings highlight the heterogeneous effects of AI under nuanced labor market conditions in a developing economy. - with Ralph Joshua P. Macarasig
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FriSem: Sharp Sensitivity Bounds for Markowitz Portfolio Optimization

We derive sharp bounds on the sensitivity of Markowitz-optimal portfolio weights to changes in expected returns. Unlike the seminal Best–Grauer (1991) bounds, our results remain valid under arbitrary convex constraints, and the analysis does not require an invertible covariance matrix. The bounds remain governed by extremal eigenvalues and unify stability analysis across constrained and unconstrained settings. We further show that the standard budget and nonnegativity constraints induce an implicit ℓ1-regularization, yielding sparse and stable portfolio solutions. These findings clarify the structural drivers of portfolio instability and reinforce the theoretical rationale for constrained optimization and shrinkage in noisy, data-limited environments. - with Elfred John C. Abacan and Maria Margarita Debuque-Gonzales.
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FriSem: Drivers of Innovation and Productivity: Experimental Evidence

Recent high-impact discoveries and inventions arise from the combined work of many innovators organized in diverse teams. However, a bigger team group size is not always better, especially when coordination becomes challenging. We conducted an experiment to test the impact of group size, task complexity, and the magnitude of payoffs on individual and group completion of a creative task. We find that individual effort in small teams is significantly higher than in medium-sized and large teams, but mid-sized groups performed better than small and large groups. The magnitude of payoffs significantly affects individual effort but not group effort. Meanwhile, task complexity matters for large groups but not for small and medium-sized groups. The study offers recommendations on incentives to improve individual and group productivity.
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FriSem: Trends and Driving Forces of High-Value Agriculture

Global agriculture is evolving. Shifts from staple cereals to high-value products like fruits, vegetables, fish, livestock, and dairy are creating opportunities to reduce poverty and strengthen food security. The session highlighted the main drivers of this transformation and its impact on farmers, markets, and the future of food.
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Webinar: Profiling Non Traditional Workers in the Philippines: Evidence from the Jobs and Skills Survey

Dr. Karl Robert L. Jandoc is a Professor of Economics and UP Scientist at the University of the Philippines Diliman. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Hawaii. His research focuses on microeconomics, development economics, and energy economics, with publications in journals such as Energy, International Journal of Game Theory, and Review of Economic Design. He has also consulted for projects funded by Philippine government agencies, USAID, the Asian Development Bank, and the World Bank.
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Brown Bag Seminar: Essay on Food Insecurity and Entitlements

Two of the primary indicators used to monitor hunger under the SDGs are the prevalence of undernourishment and the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population. The first estimates individual consumption levels in caloric terms, based on the total available food in each country, and highlights the availability and sufficiency of food in a population. The second indicator is an experience-based indicator and highlights the difficulties of household access to food due to the lack of money or other resources. This dissertation attempts to bridge the gap between these two metrics by using Sen’s entitlement approach. This paper connects sufficient food consumption levels to the economic factors affecting the ability of a household to access food, categorizing the associated factors into the different entitlements identified by Sen. This work will formalize the entitlement approach within a utility-maximization model, test the entitlement relationships econometrically, and demonstrate the relationship of entitlements to household food security via a general equilibrium simulation.
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Seminar Series: Labor Market Heterogeneity l Fed Information Shocks

The UP School of Economics, through the Philippine Center for Economic Development (PCED), invites participants to a back-to-back seminar series featuring lectures on labor market dynamics and monetary policy. The series brings together scholars to discuss unemployment insurance design and Federal Reserve information shocks, offering timely insights into contemporary economic research.
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Brown Bag Seminar: Bilateral Contract Formation and Spot Market Equilibria in the Electricity Market

Electricity prices in the Philippines have remained high despite the restructuring of the energy market and the establishment of the spot market under EPIRA. This outcome motivated the introduction of the Competitive Selection Process (CSP) to enhance competition and transparency in bilateral contracting. However, its system-wide effects, particularly its interaction with the spot market, remain underexplored. To analyze these dynamics, we develop a two-stage supply-function equilibrium model to assess (1) how contracting outcomes differ when agreements are formed through one-on-one negotiations, through a decentralized market with multiple generators, or through a centrally coordinated bilateral market, and (2) how contracting in each setting influences spot-market bidding strategies and resulting spot outcomes. To register: 
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FriSem: Tariff Cuts Without Consumer Gains: A Competition Policy Perspective On Philiipine Price Trends

We invite you to the UPSE–PCED Friday Seminar happening this Friday, November 28, 2025 at 4:00 PM at the Judith R. Duavit-Vasquez and Class of 1984 Lecture Room (UPSE 105). This session explores why rice and other food items remain expensive in the Philippines despite declining global prices and trade liberalization, and what these findings mean for inflation, trade reforms, and food security. Register onsite or via Zoom and be part of the discussion!
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FriSem: “PLANO: Magnets of highly educated working-age migrants across Mindanao”

This seminar explores migration patterns of highly educated working-age individuals in Mindanao using 2010 and 2020 Census data. Although recent migrants make up only about 4% of this group, their choices reveal clear patterns: younger adults and college graduates are more likely to migrate, and they prefer locations with schools, hospitals, parks, highways, airports, and small-sized enterprises. Densely populated towns, especially capital towns, are more attractive, while some regions like Davao and CARAGA draw more migrants than others. The study also shows life-cycle differences in preferences for amenities and economic opportunities.
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Seminar Series: Technology and Reform for Development

This seminar explores how digital technologies, AI, and sustainable innovations are shaping productivity, labor markets, and services in the East Asia and Pacific region. It emphasizes the transformative potential of technology and the need for coordinated policy and institutional reforms to ensure inclusive, sustainable growth.
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FriSem: Monetary Policy and Informal Labor Markets

India’s labor market presents a striking reality — about 72% of total employment lies in the informal sector, a defining feature of many emerging market economies. What implications does this hold for inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of monetary policy? Join us as we examine how labor market informality influences inflation behavior and shapes monetary policy transmission in emerging and developing economies.
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FriSem: Concentration and Union Activity in Local Labor Markets in the Philippines: Estimates and Implications

Edgardo Jopson is the Acting Division Chief of the Business and Economics Division at the Philippine Competition Commission. He is also a part-time lecturer at the University of the Philippines School of Economics, the De La Salle University Carlos L. Tiu Center for Economics, and the Ateneo de Manila University, where he teaches Data Science for Economists, Statistics, Industrial Organization, and Econometrics.
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FriSem: Resilient Futures Policy Priorities for Poverty Reduction and Middle-Class Expansion in the Philippines

Despite notable progress in poverty reduction since 2012, many Filipinos remain vulnerable to economic and climate-related shocks, which threaten to reverse hard-won gains. By examining the underlying drivers such as economic growth, labor market dynamics, and social policies, the report sheds light on the factors that have enabled progress as well as persistent bottlenecks, including labor market barriers and limited access to quality services. Building on these insights, the report proposes a set of targeted policy recommendations aimed at overcoming these obstacles and sustaining inclusive growth, with the goal of fostering a more resilient and prosperous society.
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FriSem: COVID-19 Food Relief and Social Distancing: Evidence from Bayan-Bayanihan Program in the Philippines

At the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) lockdown in the Philippines in April 2020, the Asian Development Bank, in partnership with the Philippine government and the private sector, implemented the Bayan Bayanihan (BB) food relief program which served approximately 162,000 households in the National Capital Region and nearby provinces. This study evaluates the impact of in-kind transfers on social distancing by examining the effectiveness of the BB program in restricting mobility by enabling households to stay at home. We leverage plausibly random variations in the timing of the rollout of the program by employing recent developments in estimating staggered difference-in-differences strategies to more accurately identify the effect of the program. We find supportive evidence that the program could generally discourage mobility. Our findings suggest that in addition to mitigating food insecurity, food transfer programs can also generate multiple dividends by helping families stay home and reducing the spread of COVID-19. (Co-authors: Yasuyuki Sawada, Elaine S. Tan, Arturo Martinez, Jr., Daniel Boller, Joseph Albert Nino Bulan, Ron Lester Durante, Soyoka Okumura, and Kazuharu Yanagimoto)
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FriSem: Infrastructure and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Satellite, Administrative and Multi-Generation Household Data in the Philippines

Despite growing interest in place-based policies, their effects on long-run structural transformation remain underexplored, especially in developing countries. This study examines the combined impacts of infrastructure development (highway, industrial park, and school establishments) on agrarian communities in the Philippines using 40 years of multi-generation family data, satellite imagery, and administrative records. The results suggest that infrastructure investment has induced durable structural change by increasing the probability of employment in modern sectors and facilitating human capital accumulation. Both the demand and supply sides of labor are central to self-sustaining modernization through place-based policies. Despite growing interest in place-based policies, their effects on long-run structural transformation remain underexplored, especially in developing countries. This study examines the combined impacts of infrastructure development (highway, industrial park, and school establishments) on agrarian communities in the Philippines using 40 years of multi-generation family data, satellite imagery, and administrative records. The results suggest that infrastructure investment has induced durable structural change by increasing the probability of employment in modern sectors and facilitating human capital accumulation. Both the demand and supply sides of labor are central to self-sustaining modernization through place-based policies.
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FriSem: Demographic Trends in the Philippines

Prof. Lisa Grace S. Bersales is currently the Undersecretary on Population and Development and Executive Director of the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) of the Philippines and a Professor Emeritus at the School of Statistics in UP Diliman.
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UPSE-PCED: Considering a PhD in Economics

Research shows that investing in early education is crucial for enhancing the academic outcomes of Filipino children. Considering a PhD in Economics provides an opportunity to explore and contribute to such impactful research
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FriSem: Group Entanglement and Esprit de Corps Programs as Solutions to Selected Collective Action Problems

Do you want to learn more about programs that pose solutions to collective action problems (CAP)? Don't miss this seminar by UPSE Prof. Emeritus Raul Fabella by registering thru QR codes. Do you want to learn more about programs that pose solutions to collective action problems (CAP)? Don't miss this seminar by UPSE Prof. Emeritus Raul Fabella by registering via the links below: Do you want to learn more about programs that pose solutions to collective action problems (CAP)? Don't miss this seminar by UPSE Prof. Emeritus Raul Fabella by registering via the links below:
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FriSem: Central Bank Data Dependency

Learn about new measures of central bank data dependency–the extent to which a central bank will adjust its policy stance in response to incoming data–for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. These measures show that data dependency varies over time and reached record highs in the post-pandemic period. Join us in person or
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Graduate Brown Bag: Navigating Tomorrow: Introduction to Futurecasting Methodologies

Do you want to know more about Futurecasting? The lecture will emphasize the practical applications of futurecasting methodologies such as science fiction prototyping, archetype user journey analysis, and threatcasting in business, policy, and innovation. Don’t miss this opportunity to deepen your knowledge of futurecasting, and apply this in analyzing emerging technologies, societal shifts, and global
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Holistic View on Deprivatization

On January 10, 2025, the UP School of Economics (UPSE) and the Philippine Center for Economic Development (PCED) hosted a seminar titled “A Holistic View on Deprivatization” from 3:00 PM to 5:00 PM at the Riingen Informatics IT Lab. The event featured Prof. Qian Sun, Professor of Finance and Chair of the Department of Finance
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Decomposing Philippine Inflation into Its Supply and Demand Components (2001-2023)

The UP School of Economics hosted a seminar entitled “Decomposing Philippine Inflation into Its Supply and Demand Components (2001-2023)” presented by Assistant Professor Jan Carlo B. Punongbayan on September 20, 2024 (Friday), at 4:00 PM, which took place in Room 105 (Judith R. Duavit-Vasquez and Class of 1984 Lecture Room). The seminar was also accessible
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Building Roads in Northern Canada: A Driver of Development?

Speaker: Thomas Stringer, PhD (Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tecnológico de Monterrey Date: 6 February 2024, 3:00 pm Venue: Julius T. Limpe Lecture Room (Room 103) Abstract: The paper examines the economic effects of road connection, using Northern Canada as a case study. It will also outline some of the policy options explored for developing
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Examining generic competition in the statins drug market in the Philippines

Speaker: Maria Cielo D. Magno Date: 06 October 2023 Time: 4:00 PM  Venue: Judith R. Duavit-Vasquez & Class of 1984 Lecture Room  Other Details: None Abstract: One approach to reduce the cost of medicine is through generic drug competition. The Generics Act of 1988 (R.A. No. 6675) requires government health agencies and personnel to use
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Fiscal Policy Options for Resilient and Sustainable Development

Speaker: Ethisham Ahmad Date: 27 June 2023 Time: 4:00 PM  Venue: Judith R. Duavit-Vasquez & Class of 1984 Lecture Room  Other Details: None Abstract:  The Pandemic has underlined the importance of uncertainty in modeling and policy design, which also applies to the increasing frequency and intensity of climate shocks. Policies based on static market-clearing models,
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